October of persistent concern of lending growth. Review of end of 2008 economic recovery experience

Red hexun.com stock stock market weekly issue 2011 > source of body-November 27, 2011: red in the securities market weekly author: Mann size: Red copy title link stock market week 201146th cover planning/red week (blog, Twitter) editorial co-ordination/Editor's Note: this week, the markets continuing inertia down, but in peripheral markets under a land swarming with disaster victims, the a-share's decline has narrowed significantly, huzhi the week fell by only 1.5% turnover shrank to 274.9 billion, fell by 36.7%. In a recent policyUnder the warm wind blows, shares quickly fell some unexpected, as a barometer for the economy, perhaps by declining reflecting domestic economic growth is already a turning point, greatly increased risk of a hard landing. This week's HSBC November PMI value from fell to 48 per cent in October, hit a 32-month low of information supporting the downside risks to economic growth has been in China.Recommended reading hexun on the City Office: next week shares or are large variable disc five large gold unit are buy opportunity large consumption will burning draws passion 8 unit zhanchiyufei muddy water and min all: who black has who sets are can't wait large shareholders discovered food Lee 8 family a 12 years fuck disc hand of 8 section to deep investment feeling IPO Meng Yu Tiger 29 months "ring" go near trillion [micro-Bo]Lao Sha: International Board will do before the path of a [Unit] stocks next week, or large areas fell (photo) "guarantee growth, adjusting structure", I believe that remains the central economic work Conference, focusing on the content of the upcoming 2012, hundreds of thousands of funds and the promotion of a series of industrial policy under the convoy escort, had identified seven major emerging strategic industries will usher in a rapid period of development�� ����Stocks under warmer winter policy article policy how far to go? Red magazine reporter Ma Manran legitimate expectations that shares risks of systemic lupus killed fell hard again now, short just 6 trading days on the huzhi is back again 2,400 points. For now, the a-share environment deteriorated, peripheral areas: Portugal's credit rating isFitch, Grand Duke downgraded debt contagion fears Europe's major stock indexes continued to plunge this week; home: declines in growth as exports and investment, the economic situation increasingly gloomy November HSBC PMI initial-only 48, again falling to below the dry line, and the highest in a 32-month low. Generally speaking, "the economy is under the real estate downturn trend of hardLanding diablo 3 gold, still under policy tuning of a soft landing? ����"," Extent of the earnings downgrade "," impact of the European debt crisis "such risk had not been fully released, and policies to improve results of PK, mobility improvements will determine whether a-shares can stabilise above the 2,300-point. Internal and external difficulties actually warmer policy PK, the a-share market in the near future the policy level was warmWind blows. Macro-areas, inflation gradually downward trend of uncertain, policy fine-tuning, policy corner, the balance of economic policy began to "growth" is tilted; FR, Chairman of the SFC after he took office, first forcing bonus programme arrangements, especially at the time of IPO commitments is significant. Then launched six major initiatives to promote capital market stabilityHealth development, which dealt with to the higher earnings release, the delisting mechanism long inhibited a shares and healthy development of the core issues, such as, if subsequent to further introduce rules diablo 3 power leveling, its effects than stock feat. Warm wind blowing with the policy, and fears in a down economy and the effects of European debt crisis intensified the impact of the reduction, in particular the European debt crisis deteriorating rapidly this week, PortugalCredit rating by Fitch, the Grand Duke the right cut, stock market plunging for several days in Europe and America, while the United States economy into a recession trend, according to the United States the last 4 quarters of real GDP growth rate was 1.5%. ����Experience has shown that since 1948, this figure is lower than 2%, United States is in recession, a total of 11 times, without exception. At present, This wave of international capital markets tsunami has begun to affect the country. Data show that in October, China's foreign exchange since December 2007 3 years for the first time in a row, showed foreign capital outflow of Chinese trade surplus narrowed, exports under pressure. Before the Mainland austerity policy remains in force, housing led to cool investment growth, particularly in this week's HSBC 1January PMI initial value plunged to 48, hit a 32-month low of messages, indeed, have sparked a round of panic, foreign investment banks issued "economic hard landing in China" increases the risk of freedom, in time, everyone from the joy of easing shifted to concerns about the economic downturn. ����Stocks dip again success will depend on whether the economy to a soft landing. HSBCBank Qu Hongbin, Chief China Economist believes that November Manufacturing PMI initial decline reflected in the coming months, the growth of industrial production is likely to be slowed down further to 11%~12%. While new export orders is still flexible, but domestic demand cools, and weaker external demand began. Barclays Capital also believes that although this does not mean that China's industrial production in the coming monthsSet in a recession, but at least China economic downside risks were increasing. ����Nomura, Chief China Economist Zhang Zhiwei even 2012 first-quarter GDP growth still to 8%! Chances of a hard landing low, credit increased by more than just around the corner market is widely expected, in November, China official PMI index also dropped below 50 per cent level of 49. "In theEconomic alerts, central banks have officially release not far away. "People in the industry expected, in a State of economic decline, European debt crisis will spread, the Chinese Government will once again face a" growth "challenge. Qu Hongbin, believed that the positive side is that as inflation falling faster than expected, will be reserved for the Government unveils a selective easing of more space, which would gradually push ChinaAccess soft-landing orbit. ����This week, Zhejiang Provincial rural credit system allowed to redirect its institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate of 0.5% per cent, despite the Central Bank clarified that this is the recovery deposit rate is not reduced, but it's still being understood as the prelude of the Central Bank reduced reserve. In this regard, guotai Junan securities analysis, China's currency policy for growth,Multiple objectives such as inflation and house prices. ����Four-quarter GDP is likely lower than 8.5%, the slowdown as the biggest risk, and in November will also fall in inflation to below 5%, in October the national average, it was the first y/y drop, this meant that monetary policy shift has become inevitable. First step is to monetary easing of monetary policy shift, a 3-year period of central interest rate cutMarked from 1 year of central interest rate cut is confirmed, the future is likely to drop interest rate cuts. ����Into the second step is credit easing of monetary policy, lower interest rates to credit demand recovery, October credit per cent increase, or increase in bank credit lines. However, UBS Securities Chief Economist at UBS said that, as long as the international financial markets or export demand noA sudden collapse, China will likely continue the current policy state of tune. The future, China's main basis by controlling the money supply and credit lines to manage monetary policy, rather than adjusting interest rates. ����But if the depletion of foreign exchange inflows continue, the Central Bank may need to cut the deposit reserve ratio may even cut before the end of 2011. No matter how the Government will relax monetaryPolicy, but policy certainly, the inflection point has been able to confirm that, taking into account the relationship between stock market and monetary policy, October of persistent concern of lending growth. Review of end of 2008 economic recovery experience, you can find credit is the most important indicator of monetary, credit and even economic decision. For example, in November 2008 credit per cent increase, followed by 2009 March the economy begins to recover. ����Since the beginning of this year's economic growth rate continued to drop, the background is also declining credit growth. Jianyin investment analysis of the macroeconomic Division Li Chongbin, does not appear a hard landing in China, a-shares will not fall below 2,300 points. Credit October has begun per cent from increased estimated December credit is expected to start up next year, according toExperience, outflow of hot money tends to accompany back easing of monetary policy. In September 2008 continued outflow of hot money, how increase occurred November credit per cent last May 2010 continuing outflow of hot money, appears in July increased by more than the same monetary easing and credit. So speculate that at end-December stock market building will be completed next year, is coming back, and GDP tend to lag aQuarter, it is estimated that GDP growth will be at the bottom of the second quarter of next year. 20 years, the policies have been around the a-share market to, even after the State has decided to reduce the impact of policies on the stock market, policies are still around is the most important factor, and is also based on a policy corner of, this week's a-share markets to the peripheral market in the reign of brave talk.Technically, the market early in the near collapse of the bottom is not observed, volumes have shrunk, fluctuations become narrower, shenchengzhi early this week to its lowest point distance less than 2% at the bottom, and huzhi, a long-term increase lifeline (history and 998 connector at the end of) the important support. Next, shenchengzhi will fall below before the end of huzhi can be stopped falling for long-termRise above the lifeline, were current investors need to pay close attention to.