2012年1月8日星期日

adjust the calculation of shortest time of 8 months

129668631867968750_64Nearly 20 years, the CPI rose and trend of Shanghai composite index, there is no "inflation peaked, the stock market bottomed". Instead, once a CPI y/y growth inflection point, subsequent analysis process by the end of the a-share markets are tough. If also continued the previous law, if July 2011 CPI rose 6.5% was this inflation of the turning points, even though three timesDecrease in minimum time, adjust the calculation of shortest time of 8 months, the Shanghai composite index hit at least to 2,114, adjust the time to continue at least through March 2012. Since 1991 there is three times the inflation rate, peak time: the first time in October 1994, CPI rose 27% Shanghai composite index closed 654 points in the month, followed byHit a 512-point twist only occurs, the biggest decrease of 21.71%, adjust the duration of 15 months; the second time in August 2004, CPI rose 5.3% Shanghai composite index closed the month-1342, then hit a 998 points turn only occurs, the biggest decrease of 25.63%, adjust the duration of 10 months; and the third, 20February 08, CPI rose by 8.7%, the Shanghai composite index closing at 4,348 in the month, subsequently has been hit did not appear until 1664 turning point, the biggest decrease of 61.72%, adjust the duration of 8 months. On Wednesday, Germany auction 3.644 billion euros the Government 10-year bonds. Prior to this, had favoured Germany poor bond sales the old republic power leveling, GermanyFunded central banks had to buy auction-39% bonds, reflecting the European debt crisis and spread to the euro-zone core areas. ����In addition, further to Spain, and Italy zhihou, sovereign-debt crisis is likely to spread to France. At the end of October, China's foreign exchange balances than those at the end of September a decrease $ 24.892 billion per cent. This is nearly four years since January 2008 the Exchange account for more thanThe amount of negative growth for the first time. Historical experience, once foreign exchange accounts for months fell by more than 1.5%, then the a-share market there will be no small adjustments on the size, and Exchange accounts for months fell more substantially, followed by adjustment of the greater destruction. However, in October fell by only 0.1% in the Foreign Exchange accounts for months. Whether foreign capital outflow is not optimistic about China's future economic development,Is the European debt crisis makes foreign institutions also realised supplementary liquidity assets in China, investors should pay close attention to the balance of Foreign Exchange accounts for changes in the coming months, HSBC's initial value for the November PMI index 48, a 32-month low. This is the first three quarters of this year, one-quarter of GDP grew by 9.7%, 9.5%, respectively,Show-by-quarters of decline, the movement of the match. In my view, while the downside risks to the Chinese economy is increasing, monetary policy in the short term it's hard to have a big adjustment, but there will be some fine-tuning policies, with smooth, GDP falling back too quickly. Concern was, recently, while domestic cash-strapped situation improve, but does not mean that the a-share market funds also get better. Funds areUtility, they are not in snowy weather, only the icing on the cake. ����Not seeing the big investment opportunity swtor power leveling, OTC massive intervention of the funds will not. 2,307 points since the rebound is weak, probabilities of 2,536 points to become the rally highs on the rise. Again hit 2,307 points to 2,330 in areas, triggered by how much the strength of the rebound, also depends on: 1Management introduced a new policy of good; 2, institution, or turn that efforts to reduce losses by the end of level 3, United States, the European economic recovery, European debt crisis twists. ����Otherwise, the Shanghai composite index fell below 2,300 points was possible in advance. Agency source: national security

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